(Ambitious. I like it. – promoted by James L.)
So this is the most ambitious blogging project I have taken on and am quite excited about it. I will be bringing you, the readers of Swing State, Dailykos, MYDD and the LastingMajority, An update on the 50 most likely Republican Seats to flip to Democratic. Updating from today, once a month, all the Way to November 08.
First let me say why I think this is so important. The blogs role must play the role of offense as the DCCC might fade back into incumbent defense. We are very good on offense. This post is attempt to say which seats need to be targeted from the beginning of the Cycle and adjusting as circumstance change.
In addition to just the 50 seat targeting, I provide lists of all Republican Incumbents who got less than 60% and 55%, as well as the districts which sent a Republican to Congress that gave George Bush 55% or less of the vote in 2004. This and a few open seats are from where got the list. For the top 25 targeted races, I gave the reason for weakness. In the bottom 25, I just include information not context. I hope this will aid the Netroots Community in make even better targeting decisions.
The Top 50 races
1. MI 7
Republican Tim Walberg
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reason for Weakness
Tim Walberg is the most vulnerable Republican member of Congress because running against an opponent in a general election who spent only $ 55,000,. He got just 51% in a 54% Bush District. His defeat of a Congressman Schwarz who was widely liked will cause him problems. If the Democrats can find a centrist in the Schwarz model we should be able to defeat this Freshman.
2. PA 15
Republican Charlie Dent
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
Charlie Dent has only been re-elected once in now one of only eight Republicans to hold a seat that John Kerry won . He also was one of only two incumbents in Kerry won districts not to have a well-financed challenger. The fact that he was only able to get 53% under these circumstance means that he is a very good target for defeat.
3. NV 3
Republican Jon Porter
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
As a Member of Congress you never want to be getting less than 50% and that is exactly the position that Jon Porter find himself as he confronts life in the minority. The Democrat was able to get 47% with 5% going else where. If the Democrats can recruit a slightly more experience candidate and Ms. Hafen now counts. This race will be extremely close.
4. FL 8
Republican Ric Keller
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
You never want to run below the President of Your own Party in your district and this is exactly what happened to Ric Keller. This is particularly bad in a state where Republican loses were less than in other states. His 53% against a good but not great opponent in a peripherally targeted race was trouble enough, but he is now breaking a term limits and already has a republican primary challenger.
5. WA 8
Republican Dave Reichert
06 Winning Percentage ?
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
A two term Congressman from one of eight Kerry won Republican held seats is by definition vulnerable, also a minority member. That he was able to get only 51% in both cycles adds to that vulnerability. This race will be very tight again. The Presidential should be helpful.
6. CO 4
Republican Marilyn Musgrave
06 Winning Percentage 46%
04 Bush Percentage 58%
Reasons for Weakness
46% is a terrible number for an Incumbent. It means serious problems particularly when your last election performance before was already 7% the President behind that of the President of your own party.
7. AZ 1
Republican Rick Renzi
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Hints of corruption, a weak re-election performance including running behind the President of your own party and being a relatively junior member now in the minority these are the challenges now faced by Rick Renzi. This is a member who is beatable.
8. CA 4
Republican John Doolittle
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 61%
Reasons for Weakness
A congressperson never wants to get less than 50%, when that is combined with such a massive running behind of party ID It shows a member with a serious problem. The large amount spent on the legal defense fund might be why. If Charlie Brown gives it another shot this could be a race. We sure should make sure it is.
9. NJ 7
Republican Mike Ferguson
06 Winning Percentage 49%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
Another Republican under 50% spells danger for him. He also is still a relative junior member just reaching the minority for the first time. Linda Stender should be encouraged to make the challenge again and regardless this can be a very close race. Ferguson’s position on social issues are also out of step for the district.
10.NC 8
Republican Robin Hayes
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Winning by less than 500 vote against the same opponent who was generally under-funded last time is all one needs to make the top ten list of vulnerable members, I think Larry Kissell should be the first person on the New Blue Majority List.
11. MI 9
Republican Joe Knollenberg
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
This was probably the worst under-target in the nation besides PA 15 with less reasons for it. The good news however is that Joe Knollenberg now a minority member spent a huge amount of money his campaign money just to hold on. He is also relatively old so a retirement would not be surprising. Either way this seat should be a top priority. Nancy Skinner was a very good candidate that not only the DCCC but us in the Netroots missed as well. If she runs again I think supporting her would be justified.
12. IL 14
Republican Dennis Hastert
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
Reasons for Weakness
How the mighty have fallen. It is quite likely this seat will open up in 08 and if not Dennis Hastert is damaged goods, a bygone relic of an era that is gone. Illinois is also a state trending clearly our way. This is a great chance.
13. OH 16
Republican Ralph Regula
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
When a nothing challenger holds you under 60% that is a problem. When you are already in your Eighties that is also a problem. When you are about to drop a tremendous amount in power that spells trouble. The Democrats already have a challenger and more will probably emerge.
14. PA 18
Republican Tim Murphy
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
Reasons for Weakness
Scandal appears to be rearing itself into this district in a way that helps us. This combined with a district remarkably similar to PA 4th where Melissa Hart was recently beaten. If not for the scandal this district would rank lower but for now it is a prime target
15. IL 6
Republican Peter Roskam
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was the DCCC’s greatest folly, by choosing a non-local candidate. It allowed the Republicans to frame the race in a way favorable to them and ultimately win it. That said the race was extremely close. A freshman Republican minority member has to beatable. Finding a local candidate will be essential.
16. PA 6
Republican Jim Gelach
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
51%, three straight elections. It seems as if Jim Gerlach is a survivor which makes him difficult to defeat and yet he clearly has to deal with transition from majority to minority. A good Democratic Candidate will make this a race again and quickly.
17. NY 25
Republican Jim Walsh
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
After not having a real challenger in a long time Jim Walsh was faced with the scare of his life. Democrat Dan Maffei was also not as well funded as he could have been. As one of the eight Republican in Kerry won districts. Jim Walsh can expect a real challenge though unlike other members he will be ready for it.
18. NM 1
Republican Heather Wilson
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 48%
Reasons for Weakness
Another absolute squeaker and another chance to take a Republican held seat. Heather Wilson is as slick as they come, though people do seem to think that Patricia Madrid made a late debate error. Regardless, she is vulnerable but difficult to beat.
19. WY AL
Republican Barbara Cubin
06 Winning Percentage 48%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
Reasons for Weakness
No one likes Barbara Cubin and her extremely weak showing shows, and yet trying to overcome the Republican tilt of Wyoming is extremely difficult, particularly in a Presidential Year. It would not be surprising to see a better Republican challenge her in the primary.
20. OH 15
Republican Deborah Pyrce
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
Reasons for Weakness
If you basically run in a tie with your opponent in a Congressional Race, you are vulnerable. However Deb Pryce is a seasoned campaigner and I am readily able to change roles, as her shift out of Republican Leadership shows. This is a tough one but completely winnable
21. CT 4
Republican Chris Shays
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
Reasons for Weakness
In many ways Chris Shays is like many of the other close races except that he has more long term incumbency and will be expect a challenge. I am from CT so I know of recruiting difficulties. It is a winnable race but one that requires a complete commitment to it. Still only eight Kerry won districts have Republican Incumbents this is one of them.
22. IL 10
Republican Mark Kirk
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 47%
Reasons for Weakness
The seventh Kerry won district on the lists. Mark Kirk is much like Chris Shays was after 2004. A scare yes, but he still had some breathing room. Picking him off will be very difficult, though Dan Seals giving it another try would be serious.
23. PA 3
Republican Phil English
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another under-target in PA , an area which trended toward the party in a serious way. There have also been rumor’s abounding about Phil English. Finding a good challenger will be difficult but he is clearly vulnerable because of his underperformance.
24. OH 1
Republican Steve Chabot
06 Winning Percentage 53%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
Reasons for Weakness
Steve Chabot had a real scare this time and came away with it quite well. He might be more vulnerable in a Presidential and the close nature of the district means it is winnable. One possible candidate is Paul Hackett, draft him and you have a race. This race risks slipping a way.
25. MI 11
Republican Thaddeus McCotter
06 Winning Percentage 54%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Reasons for Weakness
This was another Michigan under-target particularly in relationship to funding. That means the Vulnerable exists and is real. It is going to be a very tough nut to crack, but it fits the profile of many of the Democrat upset victories that happened across the country this year.
26. NY 13
Republican Vito Fosella
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
27. NJ 5
Republican Scott Garrett
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
28. IL 11
Republican Jerry Weller
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
29. IA 4
Republican
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
30. NY 3
Republican Peter King
06 Winning Percentage 56%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
31. OH 2
Republican Jean Schmidt
06 Winning Percentage 51%
04 Bush Percentage 64%
32. VA 11
Republican Tom Davis
06 Winning Percentage 55%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
33. FL 1O
Republican Bill Young
06 Winning Percentage 66%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
34. CA 26
Republican David Drier
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
35. OH 3
Republican Mike Turner
06 Winning Percentage 59%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
36. NY 29
Republican Randy Kuhl
06 Winning Percentage 52%
04 Bush Percentage 56%
37. FL 24
Republican Tom Feeney
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
38. DE AL
Republican Mike Castle
06 Winning Percentage 57%
04 Bush Percentage 46%
39. NJ 3
Republican Jim Saxton
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
40. MN 6
Republican Michelle Bachmann
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 57%
41. OH 12
Republican Pat Tiberi
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
42. NY 23
Republican John McHugh
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
43. OH 14
Republican Steve LaTourette
06 Winning Percentage 58%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
44. NJ 2
Republican Frank LoBiondo
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 50%
45. WI 1
Republican Paul Ryan
06 Winning Percentage 63%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
46 MN 3
Republican Jim Ramstad
06 Winning Percentage 65%
04 Bush Percentage 51%
47. MI 4
Republican Dave Camp
06 Winning Percentage 60%
04 Bush Percentage 55%
48. ID 1
Republican Bill Salli
06 Winning Percentage 50%
04 Bush Percentage 69%
49. FL 18
Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
06 Winning Percentage 62%
04 Bush Percentage 54%
50. MI 6
Republican Fred Upton
06 Winning Percentage 61%
04 Bush Percentage 53%
Republican Incumbents under 60%
Total 75
AK AL Don Young 57%
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
AZ 2 Trent Franks 58%
AZ 3 John Shadegg 58%
CA 3 Dan Lungren 59%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 26 David Drier 59%
CA 45 Mary Bono 59%
CA 46 Dana Rohrabacher 59%
CA 50 Brian Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
C0 6 Tom Tancredo 59%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
DE AL Mike Castle 57%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
FL 15 Dave Weldon 56%
FL 21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart 59%
FL 24 Tom Feeney 58%
FL 25 Mario Diaz-Balart 58%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IL 13 Judy Biggert 58%
IL 15 Tim Johnson 58%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
IA 4 Tom Latham 57%
IA 5 Steve King 58%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
LA 4 Jim McCrery 58%
MD 6 Roscoe Bartlett 59%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
MN 2 John Kline 56%
MT AL Dennis Rehberg 59%
NE 1 Jeff Fortenberry 59%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 3 Jim Saxton 58%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 3 Pete King 56%
NY 13 Vito Fossella 57%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 5 Virginia Foxx 57%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 3 Mike Turner 59%
OH 5 Paul Gillmor 57%
OH 12 Pat Tiberi 58%
OH 14 Steve LaTourette 58%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
OH 16 Ralph Regula 59%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Chrales Dent 53%
PA 16 Joe Pitts 57%
PA 18 Tim Murphy 58%
TX 7 John Culberson 59%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
TX 31 John Carter 58%
TX 32 Pete Sessions 57%
UT 3 Christopher Cannon 58%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 5 Virgil Goode 59%
VA 10 Frank Wolf 57%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 5 Cathy McMorris 56%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WV 2 Shelley Moore-Capito 57%
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican Incumbents 55% or under
Total 34
AZ 1 Rick Renzi 51%
CA 4 John Doolittle 49%
CA 50 Brain Bilbray 54%
CO 4 Marilyn Musgrave 46%
CT 4 Chris Shays 51%
FL 8 Rich Keller 53%
IL 10 Mark Kirk 53%
IL 11 Jerry Weller 55%
IN 3 Mark Souder 54%
KY 2 Ron Lewis 55%
KY 4 Geoff Davis 51%
MI 8 Mike Rogers 55%
MI 9 Joe Knollenberg 52%
MI 11 Thaddeus McCotter 54%
NE 2 Lee Terry 55%
NV 3 Jon Porter 48%
NJ 5 Scott Garrett 55%
NJ 7 Mike Ferguson 49%
NM 1 Heather Wilson 50%
NY 25 Jim Walsh 51%
NY 26 Tom Reynolds 52%
NY 29 Randy Kuhl 52%
NC 8 Robin Hayes 50%
OH 1 Steve Chabot 53%
OH 2 Jean Schmidt 51%
OH 15 Deborah Pryce 50%
PA 3 Phil English 54%
PA 6 Jim Gerlach 51%
PA 15 Charlie Dent 53%
TX 10 Mike McCaul 55%
VA 2 Thelma Drake 51%
VA 11 Tom Davis 55%
WA 8 Dave Reichert
WY AL Barbara Cubin 48%
Republican held District where George Bush got 55% of the vote or less
AZ 1
CA 26
CA 50
CT 4
DE AL
FL 8
FL 10
FL 18
FL 24
IL 6
IL 10
IL 11
IL 13
IL 14
IL 16
IA 4
MI 4
MI 6
MI 7
MI 8
MI 9
MI 11
MN 2
MN 3
NV 3
NJ 2
NJ 3
NJ 7
NM 1
NY 3
NY 13
NY 23
NY 25
NY 26
NC 8
OH 1
OH 3
OH 12
OH 14
OH 15
OH 16
PA 3
PA 6
PA 15
PA 18
VA 10
VA 11
WA 8
WI 1
Over 60% for Incumbent
FL 10
FL 18
IL 14
IL 16
MI 4
MI 6
MN 3
NJ 2
NY 23
WI 1
Other Potentially Vulnerable Freshman
ID 1 Bill Sali
MN 6 Michelle Bachmann
FL 13 Vern Buchann
NV 2 Dean Heller
FL 9 Gus Billikrais
I’m not sure whether or not Terry’s going to run again (he might run for Senate), but Jim Esch gave him a hell of a run without any help from the party. He’s operated on a pledge to not take any PAC money, so individual contributions and grassroots are important.
Unfortunately, NE-3 is going to be difficult. Kleeb won’t run for that seat again, and the district is very Republican. NE-1 needs a candidate that will run a different type of campaign, that addresses the concerns of the voters of the 1st District, and regains traditional Democratic strength in Lincoln.
Nice to see this making the list. I read an article in the Staten Island Advance over the weekend that raised some doubt that Rep. Fossella would be returning to his old committee assignments on the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and the House Committee on Financial Services. The later being a major source of his fund raising efforts. If this is true I would see that as an early indication that this seat is seriously be looked at this time around.
http://ny13.blogspot…
was unopposed until a Democrat ran a write in primary campaign to get on the ballot. Charlie Stuart was a great, but severely underfunded candidate who ahd to spend all his money holding off a leftwing primary challenge. Michigan State Senate Minority Leader Schuaer is the man we’re looking to beat wahlberg. Hayes needs to get beat by a Democratic state senator. I really don’t want him running again.
Is on this. I can almost gurantee you we won’t win this district. Unfortunately Cong. Paul Ryan is very good at constituent services, is very good at playing the faux-moderate and has a boatload of money all those things make him virtually unbeatable.
Kissell is not a good candidate at all. His ads were awful and he raised no money outside of the netroots. We can do better.
LOL. Renzi has 13 children, you know.
BTW, I think you’re underestimating Musgrave a bit. Angie Paccione was the best candidate we could throw at her, and she ran well behind. I also think all the people that voted for Eidsness were disaffected Republicans and would vote for Musgrave next time.
I agree that the 7th is a top target. With a good candidate who can raise some money, we can take this seat. Same thing with the 9th – although it’s one of the most expensive media markets in the country (Detroit), so the candidate needs to be good at fundraising. The 11th and 8th have possibilities, with the right candidates. The base numbers in the 11th being better than the 8th. As for the other seats, it’d take a retirement or a perfect storm.
You have VA-11 on the list but not VA-2. Do you really think Tom Davis is more vulnerable than Thelma Drake? I realize that challenger Andy Hurst didn’t get much support, but VA-11 still seems like a hard one to me unless Davis leaves to run for Senate, and that won’t happen unless John Warner retires, which is looking unlikely from his recent statements.
Castle is so beatable. (He might have lost this last election with some netroots support.)
Anyway it is good to know that he is on the radar for this next cycle.
The new Congress may pass a bill to create two new Congressional Seats – one for the the District of Columbia, a sure Democratic seat – and one for Utah which missed out in 2000 Census by only a few people and is supposedly a solid Republican Seat. The bill was almost passed before the Congress adjourned and Nancy Pelosi is under a lot of pressure to bring it up early.
But what if the Mayor of Salt Lake City – Russ (Rocky) Anderson – would run for the district that would include Salt Lake City? He is immensely popular with the voters in Salt Lake, term limited, and a left wing, liberal, Democrat. He is a strong Environmentalist and has instituted wonderful ideas on Energy, Education, etc. There are 180,000 people in Salt Lake City who supported him, twice!
Wouldn’t it be a howl if the Republicans voted to create the two new Congressional Seats and they both went to the Democrats?
Incorporating our input prior to issuing.
I think there are a few races in your top 50 that are less viable than VA-02. I Diaried on this race and firmly believe that Kellam-D was not the strongest candidate for a number of reasons including the fact that he was an untested campaigner (he won his only elected office without opposition), he failed to turn out his base because he ran on a fairly conservative platform, which especially engendered a lack of Grassroots support every successful campaign relies on. I won’t go on here, but there were many other factors.
Alot of work on your part, well done.
Locals or those closely following many of these races, issuing Diaries would be advantageous in assisting analysis and making assessments,though I haven’t seen any others issued here or on other Netroots sites.